The Kentucky Derby has been raced over a sloppy, wet or muddy track four times since it implemented its qualification point system in 2012. That could be the case again Saturday, with rain anticipated to blanket the Louisville area for much of the week until post time. The Accuweater prediction indicates an 80 percent chance of rain on Saturday, with a 16 percent risk of thunderstorms — following a rainy day on Friday — necessitating an alternative handicapping scheme if a muddy or sloppy track truly emerges.
Wothappen learnt that since his last run, Pioneer of Medina’s speed statistics have steadily increased, two of which were Grade 2 stakes events on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He could compete with the best in this field if he took one more step forward. In addition, he has a history of beating the odds, making him a good bet in any race. As an optional claimer, Pioneer of Medina won the race at 7-1 odds. Then, at almost 34-1 odds, he completed a superfecta in the Risen Star Stakes. His most recent race, the Louisiana Derby at almost 16-1 odds, was a third-place finish.
Kentucky Derby 2022 time and date
Sloppy or rainy racing conditions can benefit from Todd Pletcher’s colt, as well. In the past, the Kentucky Derby mud has not been kind to front-runners who are one-dimensional. There has been no success in any of the last four Kentucky Derbys that were run on a non-fast track, and they don’t expect to be competitive tonight either.
Instead, focus on horses that race either as a stalker (a horse that is comfortable in the lead or follows the leader one to three lengths back) or a presser (a horse that is willing to put pressure on the leader) (a horse that prefers to run four to seven lengths behind the leader in the middle of the pack). A half-mile leader or runner-up in each of his four dirt route races (races longer than a mile) is Pioneer of Medina, who has won two of those races while finishing third and fourth in the remaining two.
The fact that 17 of the Derby’s 20 horses have never run on a sloppy, muddy, or wet dirt track further complicates matters (four more have raced on a dirt track labeled good, which means the surface is either drying out or has had recent, but not substantial, rainfall). It’s clear that we need to delve deeper and focus on horses that have a lot of speed in their pedigree, which is known as the horse’s dose index, a numerical depiction of a horse’s pedigree first published in 1981 by the Daily Racing Form.
Kentucky Derby 2022 post position
Horses with dosage indexes over 3.00 will pique our interest, as they are similar to recent slop winners such as Justify and Always Dreaming (both of whom had indexes of over 3.00), as well as Orb (the 2013 winner), who had a 3.21 dosage index (the 2018 winner, with a 3.00). Due to the disqualification of Maximum Security (3.00), Country House (2.69), won the Run for the Roses in 2019 on a muddy course.
Thanks to his father’s side, Pioneer of Medina has a dosage index of 3.00 and many classic characteristics to show for it, which bodes well for him.
Pioneerof the Nile, the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby in 2009, is the father of American Pharoah, the winner of the Triple Crown. A son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Pioneerof the Nile is also a sibling to Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming (who triumphed over the muddy track in 2017) and 2012 Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister. Legendary Kentucky Derby champions Grindstone and Mine That Bird are direct descendants of Medina’s great-grandfather, Unbridled. Despite the odds being as low as 50-1, in 2009 Mine That Bird came through with the win in the first leg of the Triple Crown on a sloppy track.
In the rain or mud of Saturday, Pioneer of Medina appears to have what it takes to shock the entire racing community.
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